A simple spreadsheet looking at the Monty Hall Problem, referenced in today's "link a day" post by Sudhir Kamath
Here's the link to the spreadsheet.
It's not even close. You should always switch. If you imagine doing this 50 times it becomes quite obvious - in a single instance (like when you are on the game show) it might be harder to process.
In a 100 instances, you will pick a goat on the first draw roughly 67 times, the host will open another door with goats (a 100 times), so there are only 33 goats to go and 67 cars left - all of which are behind the third door, in the respective cases.
Credit to Aseem Kaul for the most elegant description of the logic for switching:
Here's the link to the spreadsheet.
It's not even close. You should always switch. If you imagine doing this 50 times it becomes quite obvious - in a single instance (like when you are on the game show) it might be harder to process.
In a 100 instances, you will pick a goat on the first draw roughly 67 times, the host will open another door with goats (a 100 times), so there are only 33 goats to go and 67 cars left - all of which are behind the third door, in the respective cases.
Credit to Aseem Kaul for the most elegant description of the logic for switching:
You know there's a two thirds chance that you picked the wrong door, so you know there's a two thirds chance the other door is the right one.
